Insights / us
ADP
Automatic Data Processing, Inc.US04/14/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.73%
P05–P95 span
12.70%
Neighbors
26
Sharpness
0.75
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+9.69%
Outer 90%
5/10(50%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.06%P25: -0.91%P50: 0.73%P75: 2.22%P95: 5.64%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 25.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.