Insights / us
ADP
Automatic Data Processing, Inc.US04/09/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.51%
P05–P95 span
9.25%
Neighbors
40
Sharpness
0.81
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+0.28%
Outer 90%
5/10(50%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.85%P25: -3.80%P50: -1.51%P75: 0.17%P95: 2.41%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:46 AM · ESS 39.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.