Insights / us
ADP
Automatic Data Processing, Inc.US04/07/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.79%
P05–P95 span
14.13%
Neighbors
27
Sharpness
0.72
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-1.38%
Outer 90%
8/10(80%)
Middle 50%
5/10(50%)
Above median
3/10(30%)
Below median
7/10(70%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -9.71%P25: -4.02%P50: -0.79%P75: 0.89%P95: 4.41%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:47 AM · ESS 25.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.