Insights / us
ADM
Archer-Daniels-Midland CompanyUS06/02/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.20%
P05–P95 span
13.79%
Neighbors
36
Sharpness
0.72
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
6 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+6
-4.83%
Outer 90%
6/6(100%)
Middle 50%
2/6(33%)
Above median
1/6(17%)
Below median
5/6(83%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -8.56%P25: -4.06%P50: -1.20%P75: 1.25%P95: 5.22%
Computed at: 06/03/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 35.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.