Insights / us
ADM
Archer-Daniels-Midland CompanyUS05/18/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.35%
P05–P95 span
13.88%
Neighbors
31
Sharpness
0.72
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+4.78%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
3/10(30%)
Below median
7/10(70%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.74%P25: -1.26%P50: 0.35%P75: 2.65%P95: 6.14%
Computed at: 05/19/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 30.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.