Insights / us
ADM
Archer-Daniels-Midland CompanyUS04/19/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.77%
P05–P95 span
9.66%
Neighbors
33
Sharpness
0.81
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+12.71%
Outer 90%
4/10(40%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -2.71%P25: -0.24%P50: 1.77%P75: 3.71%P95: 6.96%
Computed at: 04/20/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 32.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.