Insights / us
ADM
Archer-Daniels-Midland CompanyUS04/15/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.65%
P05–P95 span
11.20%
Neighbors
21
Sharpness
0.78
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+10.97%
Outer 90%
7/10(70%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.06%P25: -1.13%P50: 0.65%P75: 2.72%P95: 6.14%
Computed at: 04/16/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 20.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.