Insights / us
ADM
Archer-Daniels-Midland CompanyUS04/08/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.62%
P05–P95 span
8.57%
Neighbors
39
Sharpness
0.83
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-2.23%
Outer 90%
8/10(80%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
1/10(10%)
Below median
9/10(90%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.23%P25: -3.51%P50: -1.62%P75: 0.19%P95: 2.34%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:47 AM · ESS 38.2 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.