Insights / us
ADBE
Adobe Inc.US05/04/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.63%
P05–P95 span
9.63%
Neighbors
39
Sharpness
0.81
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+0.39%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
5/10(50%)
Below median
5/10(50%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.29%P25: -4.01%P50: -1.63%P75: 0.25%P95: 2.35%
Computed at: 05/05/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 38.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.