Insights / us
ADBE
Adobe Inc.US04/06/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-3.17%
P05–P95 span
23.85%
Neighbors
40
Sharpness
0.52
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+1.23%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
6/10(60%)
Below median
4/10(40%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -19.74%P25: -8.33%P50: -3.17%P75: -0.33%P95: 4.12%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:47 AM · ESS 39.3 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.