Insights / us
ACGL
Arch Capital Group Ltd.US06/08/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.03%
P05–P95 span
16.81%
Neighbors
23
Sharpness
0.66
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
2 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+2
+1.57%
Outer 90%
1/2(50%)
Middle 50%
1/2(50%)
Above median
2/2(100%)
Below median
0/2(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.65%P25: -2.51%P50: -0.03%P75: 2.91%P95: 9.16%
Computed at: 06/09/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 22.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.