Insights / us
ACGL
Arch Capital Group Ltd.US05/28/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.30%
P05–P95 span
7.65%
Neighbors
25
Sharpness
0.85
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
9 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+9
+1.00%
Outer 90%
5/9(56%)
Middle 50%
5/9(56%)
Above median
4/9(44%)
Below median
5/9(56%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.51%P25: -1.16%P50: 0.30%P75: 1.84%P95: 4.14%
Computed at: 05/29/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 24.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.