Insights / us
ACGL
Arch Capital Group Ltd.US05/10/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.12%
P05–P95 span
9.00%
Neighbors
39
Sharpness
0.82
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+1.30%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
10/10(100%)
Below median
0/10(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.74%P25: -3.00%P50: -1.12%P75: 0.38%P95: 3.26%
Computed at: 05/11/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 38.3 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.