Insights / us
ACGL
Arch Capital Group Ltd.US04/29/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.11%
P05–P95 span
8.19%
Neighbors
31
Sharpness
0.84
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+1.28%
Outer 90%
7/10(70%)
Middle 50%
5/10(50%)
Above median
10/10(100%)
Below median
0/10(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.41%P25: -1.28%P50: 0.11%P75: 1.52%P95: 3.78%
Computed at: 04/30/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 30.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.