Insights / us
ACGL
Arch Capital Group Ltd.US04/07/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.42%
P05–P95 span
21.13%
Neighbors
28
Sharpness
0.58
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+0.27%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
7/10(70%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -17.92%P25: -4.57%P50: -0.42%P75: 1.25%P95: 3.20%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:47 AM · ESS 27.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.