Insights / us
AAPL
Apple Inc.US05/21/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.09%
P05–P95 span
8.82%
Neighbors
31
Sharpness
0.82
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-1.50%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
5/10(50%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.33%P25: -1.89%P50: -0.09%P75: 1.75%P95: 4.49%
Computed at: 05/22/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 30.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.