Insights / us
AAPL
Apple Inc.US05/17/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.10%
P05–P95 span
7.61%
Neighbors
32
Sharpness
0.85
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+4.98%
Outer 90%
7/10(70%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.14%P25: -1.04%P50: 0.10%P75: 1.33%P95: 3.46%
Computed at: 05/18/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 31.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.