Insights / kr
383220
F&FKR05/27/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.29%
P05–P95 span
16.57%
Neighbors
5
Sharpness
0.67
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
9 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+9
+11.83%
Outer 90%
7/9(78%)
Middle 50%
1/9(11%)
Above median
3/9(33%)
Below median
6/9(67%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -11.04%P25: -2.48%P50: -0.29%P75: 1.80%P95: 5.52%
Computed at: 05/27/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 5.0 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.