Insights / kr
383220
F&FKR05/14/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+3.11%
P05–P95 span
23.67%
Neighbors
8
Sharpness
0.53
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-15.52%
Outer 90%
2/10(20%)
Middle 50%
0/10(0%)
Above median
0/10(0%)
Below median
10/10(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.97%P25: 0.00%P50: 3.11%P75: 7.98%P95: 16.70%
Computed at: 05/14/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 7.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.