Insights / kr
383220
F&FKR05/10/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.23%
P05–P95 span
32.41%
Neighbors
20
Sharpness
0.35
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-10.80%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
6/10(60%)
Above median
2/10(20%)
Below median
8/10(80%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -13.33%P25: -3.79%P50: 0.23%P75: 3.90%P95: 19.08%
Computed at: 05/10/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 19.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.