Insights / kr
383220
F&FKR04/28/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+2.66%
P05–P95 span
17.13%
Neighbors
10
Sharpness
0.66
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+25.67%
Outer 90%
1/10(10%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -2.17%P25: 0.41%P50: 2.66%P75: 8.59%P95: 14.96%
Computed at: 04/28/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 9.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.