Insights / kr
383220
F&FKR04/16/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.00%
P05–P95 span
31.14%
Neighbors
12
Sharpness
0.38
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+14.67%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
8/10(80%)
Above median
7/10(70%)
Below median
3/10(30%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.87%P25: -1.92%P50: 0.00%P75: 3.32%P95: 24.28%
Computed at: 04/16/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 11.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.