Insights / kr
383220
F&FKR04/14/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.12%
P05–P95 span
26.01%
Neighbors
6
Sharpness
0.48
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+4.00%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
10/10(100%)
Below median
0/10(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.12%P25: -2.16%P50: 0.12%P75: 2.46%P95: 20.89%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:46 AM · ESS 6.0 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.