Insights / kr
383220
F&FKR04/12/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+3.61%
P05–P95 span
44.61%
Neighbors
6
Sharpness
0.11
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+1.68%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
5/10(50%)
Above median
2/10(20%)
Below median
8/10(80%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -8.33%P25: 0.31%P50: 3.61%P75: 7.99%P95: 36.28%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:47 AM · ESS 6.0 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.