282330

BGF리테일KR04/23/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

Median move
-0.37%
P05–P95 span
8.61%
Neighbors
13
Sharpness
0.83
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-0.67%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
7/10(70%)
Above median
5/10(50%)
Below median
5/10(50%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Aggregated distribution (density strip)

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -5.45%P25: -2.36%P50: -0.37%P75: 1.50%P95: 3.16%

Computed at: 04/23/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 12.9 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.