Insights / kr

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BGF리테일KR04/02/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

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Median move
+0.19%
P05–P95 span
16.34%
Neighbors
18
Sharpness
0.67
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-0.96%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
5/10(50%)
Above median
4/10(40%)
Below median
6/10(60%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Aggregated distribution (density strip)

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -7.21%P25: -1.64%P50: 0.19%P75: 2.61%P95: 9.13%

Computed at: 04/15/26, 03:49 AM · ESS 17.2 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.