278470

에이피알KR04/23/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

Median move
+2.12%
P05–P95 span
16.08%
Neighbors
9
Sharpness
0.68
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-7.67%
Outer 90%
5/10(50%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
2/10(20%)
Below median
8/10(80%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Aggregated distribution (density strip)

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -5.38%P25: -0.26%P50: 2.12%P75: 4.40%P95: 10.70%

Computed at: 04/23/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 8.7 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.