Insights / kr
278470
에이피알KR04/02/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.67%
P05–P95 span
26.36%
Neighbors
9
Sharpness
0.47
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+21.95%
Outer 90%
3/10(30%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -18.01%P25: -4.49%P50: -1.67%P75: 0.72%P95: 8.35%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 03:49 AM · ESS 9.0 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.