192820

코스맥스KR05/21/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

Median move
-1.73%
P05–P95 span
13.53%
Neighbors
24
Sharpness
0.73
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-7.89%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
6/10(60%)
Above median
1/10(10%)
Below median
9/10(90%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Aggregated distribution (density strip)

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -10.26%P25: -7.33%P50: -1.73%P75: 0.77%P95: 3.27%

Computed at: 05/21/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 23.5 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.