Insights / kr
114090
GKLKR05/20/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.06%
P05–P95 span
24.86%
Neighbors
9
Sharpness
0.50
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-0.52%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
8/10(80%)
Above median
4/10(40%)
Below median
6/10(60%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -12.71%P25: -6.84%P50: -1.06%P75: 0.90%P95: 12.15%
Computed at: 05/20/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 8.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.