Insights / kr
114090
GKLKR05/13/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.46%
P05–P95 span
20.09%
Neighbors
9
Sharpness
0.60
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-7.98%
Outer 90%
7/10(70%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
6/10(60%)
Below median
4/10(40%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -8.47%P25: -3.53%P50: -1.46%P75: 2.37%P95: 11.62%
Computed at: 05/13/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 8.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.