Insights / kr
114090
GKLKR05/11/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.16%
P05–P95 span
28.96%
Neighbors
10
Sharpness
0.42
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-3.97%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
6/10(60%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.19%P25: -2.82%P50: -0.16%P75: 3.26%P95: 22.77%
Computed at: 05/11/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 9.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.