Insights / kr
114090
GKLKR04/02/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.10%
P05–P95 span
20.41%
Neighbors
6
Sharpness
0.59
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+4.09%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -13.50%P25: -2.50%P50: -0.10%P75: 2.72%P95: 6.91%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 03:49 AM · ESS 6.0 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.