Insights / kr
078930
GSKR06/08/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.06%
P05–P95 span
13.09%
Neighbors
7
Sharpness
0.74
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
3 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+3
+2.11%
Outer 90%
3/3(100%)
Middle 50%
3/3(100%)
Above median
3/3(100%)
Below median
0/3(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.24%P25: -0.88%P50: 1.06%P75: 2.97%P95: 7.85%
Computed at: 06/08/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 7.0 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.