Insights / kr
078930
GSKR05/27/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.20%
P05–P95 span
13.54%
Neighbors
5
Sharpness
0.73
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-3.59%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
5/10(50%)
Above median
3/10(30%)
Below median
7/10(70%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -10.26%P25: -3.57%P50: -1.20%P75: 1.20%P95: 3.28%
Computed at: 05/27/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 4.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.