Insights / kr
078930
GSKR05/06/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-4.48%
P05–P95 span
21.90%
Neighbors
7
Sharpness
0.56
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-2.08%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
8/10(80%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -10.88%P25: -6.40%P50: -4.48%P75: 0.94%P95: 11.02%
Computed at: 05/06/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 6.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.