Insights / kr
078930
GSKR04/16/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.53%
P05–P95 span
26.59%
Neighbors
9
Sharpness
0.47
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+11.13%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
7/10(70%)
Below median
3/10(30%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.37%P25: -0.62%P50: 1.53%P75: 4.62%P95: 22.22%
Computed at: 04/16/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 8.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.