035720

카카오KR04/12/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

Median move
+0.48%
P05–P95 span
8.02%
Neighbors
5
Sharpness
0.84
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+4.08%
Outer 90%
4/10(40%)
Middle 50%
0/10(0%)
Above median
10/10(100%)
Below median
0/10(0%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Aggregated distribution (density strip)

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -2.41%P25: -0.50%P50: 0.48%P75: 1.68%P95: 5.61%

Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:47 AM · ESS 5.0 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.