Insights / kr
034730
SKKR05/21/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.34%
P05–P95 span
31.39%
Neighbors
9
Sharpness
0.37
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+2.24%
Outer 90%
4/10(40%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -11.82%P25: -2.10%P50: -0.34%P75: 1.79%P95: 19.57%
Computed at: 05/21/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 8.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.