Insights / kr
034730
SKKR05/18/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+2.47%
P05–P95 span
25.04%
Neighbors
15
Sharpness
0.50
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+27.72%
Outer 90%
3/10(30%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
10/10(100%)
Below median
0/10(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.28%P25: -0.65%P50: 2.47%P75: 6.94%P95: 19.76%
Computed at: 05/18/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 14.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.