Insights / kr
034730
SKKR04/02/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.42%
P05–P95 span
12.43%
Neighbors
10
Sharpness
0.75
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+17.92%
Outer 90%
3/10(30%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -8.70%P25: -3.68%P50: -1.42%P75: 0.37%P95: 3.74%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 03:49 AM · ESS 9.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.