030200

KTKR04/13/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

Median move
-1.98%
P05–P95 span
16.72%
Neighbors
9
Sharpness
0.67
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-4.09%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
8/10(80%)
Above median
10/10(100%)
Below median
0/10(0%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Aggregated distribution (density strip)

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -12.87%P25: -5.78%P50: -1.98%P75: 0.24%P95: 3.85%

Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:47 AM · ESS 8.7 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.