Insights / kr
030000
제일기획KR05/20/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-2.34%
P05–P95 span
17.78%
Neighbors
19
Sharpness
0.64
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-3.28%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
10/10(100%)
Above median
7/10(70%)
Below median
3/10(30%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -12.82%P25: -6.93%P50: -2.34%P75: 1.08%P95: 4.96%
Computed at: 05/20/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 18.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.