Insights / kr
030000
제일기획KR05/13/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.56%
P05–P95 span
10.88%
Neighbors
5
Sharpness
0.78
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-2.53%
Outer 90%
6/10(60%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
4/10(40%)
Below median
6/10(60%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.86%P25: -0.51%P50: 0.56%P75: 2.27%P95: 4.01%
Computed at: 05/13/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 4.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.