Insights / kr
030000
제일기획KR04/23/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.87%
P05–P95 span
20.55%
Neighbors
19
Sharpness
0.59
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-4.43%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
5/10(50%)
Above median
1/10(10%)
Below median
9/10(90%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.49%P25: -2.20%P50: 0.87%P75: 4.79%P95: 14.06%
Computed at: 04/23/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 18.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.