Insights / kr
030000
제일기획KR04/21/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.40%
P05–P95 span
15.10%
Neighbors
12
Sharpness
0.70
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-3.18%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
7/10(70%)
Above median
1/10(10%)
Below median
9/10(90%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.88%P25: -1.13%P50: 1.40%P75: 4.64%P95: 10.22%
Computed at: 04/21/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 11.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.