Insights / kr
030000
제일기획KR04/05/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.14%
P05–P95 span
12.98%
Neighbors
24
Sharpness
0.74
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+3.65%
Outer 90%
8/10(80%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.27%P25: -4.28%P50: -1.14%P75: 0.90%P95: 5.70%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 03:49 AM · ESS 22.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.