Insights / kr
012630
HDCKR05/27/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.51%
P05–P95 span
12.70%
Neighbors
16
Sharpness
0.75
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-3.42%
Outer 90%
8/10(80%)
Middle 50%
0/10(0%)
Above median
1/10(10%)
Below median
9/10(90%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.38%P25: -2.00%P50: 0.51%P75: 2.43%P95: 5.33%
Computed at: 05/27/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 15.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.