Insights / kr
012630
HDCKR05/03/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.93%
P05–P95 span
13.70%
Neighbors
8
Sharpness
0.73
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-19.33%
Outer 90%
3/10(30%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
1/10(10%)
Below median
9/10(90%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.71%P25: -4.41%P50: -0.93%P75: 2.08%P95: 5.99%
Computed at: 05/03/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 7.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.