Insights / kr
012630
HDCKR04/26/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.56%
P05–P95 span
12.84%
Neighbors
6
Sharpness
0.74
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-14.66%
Outer 90%
8/10(80%)
Middle 50%
7/10(70%)
Above median
4/10(40%)
Below median
6/10(60%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.86%P25: -4.43%P50: -1.56%P75: 0.52%P95: 6.98%
Computed at: 04/26/26, 06:15 PM · ESS 6.0 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.